Prospective Identification of Patients at Risk for Unwarranted Variation in Treatment

Journal Palliat Med
Kelley AS, Bollens-Lund E, Covinsky KE, Skinner JS, Morrison RS

Understanding factors associated with treatment intensity may help ensure higher value healthcare. We identified people with incident serious illness (a serious medical condition, for example, metastatic cancer or functional impairment); calculated subjects' one-year mortality risk; and then followed them for one year. We examined relationships between individual and regional characteristics and total Medicare costs, and then stratified analyses by one-year mortality risk: low, moderate, and high.

Among seriously ill older adults, indicators of poor health are associated with higher costs. Yet, among those with poorest prognoses, nonmedical characteristics-race and regional practice patterns-have greater influence on treatment. This suggests there may be novel opportunities to improve care quality and value by assuring patient-centered, goal-directed care.